Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024

Valid 00Z Thu May 02 2024 - 00Z Sat May 04 2024

...Severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threat exists across parts of
the central/southern Plains tonight before expanding into the Mississippi
Valley on Thursday...

...Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High
Plains through this evening...

...Cool and snowy in parts of the Northwest with above average and
potentially record breaking temperatures into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...


A very active start to May is underway throughout much of the central and
southern Plains as scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this
afternoon are forecast to continue into the overnight hours. Low pressure
strengthening over the central High Plains and an attached warm front
extending through the mid-Mississippi Valley will help draw ample moisture
northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, convection forming off a
southern High Plains dryline should push eastward across parts of Oklahoma
and Texas, with several storms potentially containing very heavy rainfall
and training over similar regions. The flash flooding risk is highest
across parts of central and eastern Texas through tonight, where a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Several
inches of rain falling over sensitive and previously saturated terrain
could lead to numerous flash floods, with a few significant flooding
events possible. Additionally, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall extends northward into central Oklahoma and all of north-central
Texas, with a separate Slight Risk in effect from north-central Kansas to
western Iowa. These regions can also expect scattered thunderstorms
containing intense rainfall rates and possible instances of flash flooding
through early Thursday. These evening and overnight thunderstorms are also
expected to contain damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes
from West Texas to south-central Kansas. These regions fall within an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms issued by the Storm
Prediction Center. As the low pressure system and attached cold front
gradually swings eastward into the Upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley on
Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are also expected to expand eastward.
Scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible between a
large area stretching from the Midwest to southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley, with the threat becoming more isolated across the
Plains and Deep South on Friday. Residents and visitors are reminded to
have multiple ways to receive warnings and never drive across flooding
roadways.

One additional hazard in the central U.S. due to the potent weather system
impacting the region will be the increased fire weather concerns over the
southern High Plains through this evening. Low relative humidity combined
with gusty winds and dry terrain could cause wildfires to develop easily
and spread rapidly. Red Flag Warnings are in effect and stretch from
eastern New Mexico to southeast Colorado, far west Oklahoma, and the
northwest Texas Panhandle.

Elsewhere, a weather pattern consisting of upper-level riding over the
East and troughing over the Northwest will support cooler weather in the
northern Rockies and Northwest with summer-like warmth spreading from
parts of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. In addition to the below average
temperatures in the Northwest, snow is likely across the high terrain of
the northern Rockies through Friday. Meanwhile, the above average warmth
throughout the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic could break daily
high temperature records on Thursday as highs reach into the upper 80s and
low 90s. New England will remain cooler, however, through the end of the
week as high pressure noses southward along the coast and promotes
easterly flow off the chilly Atlantic. 


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php